FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF NEW YORK GOLD

for helpful comments on earlier drafts from Gian Luca Clementi, James Clouse, Huberto Ennis,Michael Feroli, Kenneth Garbade, Marvin Goodfriend, Helios Herrera, Andrew Howland, Simon Potter, Robert Rich, John Robertson, Asani Sarkar, Jeff Shrader, and David Skeie. Theviews expressed in this paper are[r]

A previous draft was circulated in December 2008 under the title “Can Tax Cuts Deepen theRecession?” The author thanks Matthew Denes for outstanding research assistance, as well asLawrence Christiano and Michael Woodford for several helpful discussions on this topic. Thispaper presents preliminary f[r]

are not adequately mitigated with effective mechanisms, the financial system has weaker defenses against the supply of poorly underwritten loans and aggressively structured securities. Overviews of the shadow banking system are provided by Pozsar (2008) and Adrian and Shin (2009). Pozs[r]

ahead and reduces rate volatility.Key words: Central bank communication, interest rate forecasts, central banktransparency, financial market efficiencyMiddeldorp: Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Utrecht University(menno.middeldorp@ny.frb.org). Th[r]

the same effect on unemployment. In other words, the rule-of-thumb applies equally well to recoveries and recessions. They also demonstrated that Okun’s law did not break down during the recent jobless recoveries. Between 2009 and 2011, for example, Ball et al estimated that the relationship[r]

0. The matrix Q has no structural interpretation. (In section 5, we elaborate on the con trastbetween our d ecomposition and more traditional decompositions w hich impose structural interpretationson Q.)We then use a standard maximum lik elihood procedure to estimate the parameters P0,P,andV of